No-Bank Analysis

[Nicholost]

I was lucky enough to receive a lesson on no-banking from Tramp Stamp before he departed. It was a game changer for me. I've followed his advice for seven weeks now with overwhelming success. I have literally saved millions by not using the bank. It's now time to pass on the knowledge.

Before you begin, you will need to determine two things: the period between successful attacks against you, and your daily income.


The Period Between Losses (P)
The period between successful attacks against you, P, is exactly that. It is the time between attacks against you where the opponent was successful. It does not take into account robberies since your stats are considerably reduced when fending off robberies.

To determine the period, set out some lucrative bait, wait, and watch your news feed. Depending on your level and what you opponents consider a good take, this could be anywhere from $1K to $100K. You want a chunk big enough to excite the sharks in your pool, that is, the strongest opponents in your bracket. If your bait gets taken, record the elapsed time since the last successful attack against you and rebait your hook. You want to determine an average period, so you may have to do this a few times... or only once, depending on your acceptable risk.


Your Income (I)
Your income in not your $/hr, but what you actually bring in from your buildings, PvP, and PvE. It is the total amount you bring in during a day's work before you bank it. You may want to keep a notepad for this so you don't accidentally sum banked money that has already lost 10%.


The Math
P = The period between successful attacks (in days)
I = Your income ($/day)
M = Maximum loss from an attack = (I x P) x 65.1% or $300K, whichever is lower
B = Loss from banking = (I x P) x 10%

If M > B, use the bank
If M < B, no-bank

It's that simple.

BTW, the 65.1% and $300K values came from this thread. They represent the maximum amount someone can take from you with 10 successful hits.


Example
Alex makes $1million/day from his buildings, PvE, and PvP. He puts out a bait of $40K and observes that it takes 3 days 4 hours for an opponent to be able to attack him and win. Even though that opponent only had two successful attempts at the bait out of 5+, Alex assumes that with enough stamina, that opponent could have 10. Alex rehooks his $40K bait and tries again. This time, he goes 3 days 20 hours before he attacked and loses. Confident he can average 3.5 days between attacks, he does his calculations...

P = (3 days 4 hrs + 3 days 20 hrs) / 2 = (3.167 days + 3.833 days) / 2 = 3.5 days
I = 1,000,000 $/day
M = ($1,000,000/day x 3.5 days) x 65.1% = $2,278,500 > $300,000 = $300,000
B = ($1,000,000/day x 3.5 days) x 10% = $350,000

M < B = $300,000 < $350,000 = no-bank

In this example, Alex makes $50,000 more every 3.5 days by no-banking.


Repeat Offenders
Repeat offenders are sharks that revisit your hood because they know you no-bank. They are people who can and will beat you if given the chance. However, they have to find you first and the pool (bracket) is large. Remember, there's a cool-down period after you are too beat up where opponents cannot attack you. Some have said that period is 1 hour, some say it is more likely 2 hours. I personally have the most faith in this post by Lars, which says it is 2 hours. During that cool-down you can do one of three things:

1. Do nothing.
2. Congratulate your attacker on their wall and send them an invite.
3. Tuck tail and bank your money (if the shark's stats are well above yours and he has appeared in your rivals list often). IMO, this is the worst option.

I prefer option #2. I let them know how long I have been no-banking without an attack against me and that they successfully ruined my streak, thereby forcing me to bank again (bluff). I then congratulate them and request we join mafia. Why? Because with them in my mafia, they cannot attack me again and that is one less shark that I have to worry about. I'm batting 100% with this strategy. It's remarkably effective to appeal to someone's ego before sending them a request. Plus, I'm genuinely impressed when someone has both the strength and desire to break my streak.

Let's say they don't accept your request. Sit tight and don't panic prematurely. It will be two hours before they, or anyone, can attack you again. After that, they still have to find you in the rival's list. There's a tremendous amount of dedication involved in sitting and clicking refresh while looking for a single player out of hundreds. There are people who can tolerate, and enjoy, that kind of hunt, but most cannot and will give up in boredom.

A note from TS:

One thing I'd add is that it's worthwhile in a breakeven or even slight loss situation because you get info on who is beating you and how they are doing it. I never sent invites but I did ask (earnest) questions and reply to (friendly) trash talk, usually with jokes. I'd usually get an unsolicited invite. Even the trash talkers would send me add requests because I'd send them jokes in return. M4 advice was also highly valued, though not so much anymore I'd wager. Invite or not, I had few "repeat offenders". As businesslike as a lot of people would like to claim, most people seem to have trouble attacking "humanized" targets.

Sometimes I'd witness my money shrinking while playing (there is a considerable lag in notification). If I had more than $3 million I'd do nothing and let them take it because if I banked it'd be a "double loss". losing $300k would still be less than 10% and, like I said, few repeat offenders.

The one thing you never do when no-banking is revenge attack or rob. I'm going to say that again, do not attack or revenge anyone from your new feed. Just because you won the first time they attacked/robbed you does not mean you will win the second time. By placing yourself on their news feed, you are providing them with a direct connection to you. Bad idea.


Picking Opponents While No-Banking
Now that you are no-banking, you want to be careful who you attack/rob. You don't want to mistakenly piss off a shark after robbing his laundromat and give him direct access to your cash. Instead, only rob those whose attack is ~50% of your defense. That's very conservative advice and if you're not a strong player, that may be difficult to follow. Regardless, you are now primarily concerned with each victim's attack. You want to know if they are able to come back through their news feed and take your cash.

A note from TS:

I see you kept the 50% strength recommendation. You might want to mention that it's because Tramp Stamp was a lazy collector and didn't want obsessed robbers. I didn't complete analysis on attack, but 50% is almost beyond hopeless whereas it's almost conceivable with robberies.

High Levels
The higher you get in the levels, the more common sharks are. Eventually, there's a point where the brackets open up completely and rivals have visibility to dozens of levels, not just 2 or 3. Because the pool is large and opponents differ so dramatically, this strategy should applied with caution in the HLs. In fact, in the high levels, most may not be able to no-bank at all.

[Zendfrim]

2hour attack cool down is confirmed.

[i need muney]

Alex makes $100K/day

John has three apples.....

[BeniBugatti]

In your example you said
B = ($100000/day x 3.5 days) x 10% = $310,000
You either have a typo here or in your formula because...
B = ($100000/day x 3.5 days) x 10% is actually = $35,000

[Yahkin]

I had considered no banking in the past because I was generally more powerful than most of my rivals, but since getting 10 emeralds it is a moot point.

[Nicholost]

In your example you said
B = ($100000/day x 3.5 days) x 10% = $310,000
You either have a typo here or in your formula because...
B = ($100000/day x 3.5 days) x 10% is actually = $35,000

Yep, I said $100K, but did my calculations based off $1 million. It has been fixed.

[BeniBugatti]

Now the numbers make sense

I have noticed that my low level camper who doesn't lose often has an incredibly low maximum loss. Something like $400 per attack. My question is, is there a formula that has been determined which can compute the maximum loss per attack (based on level)?

[Walter]

Do we know at what level the HLs can see to, currently?

I'm getting up there and am curious:
a) will I learn I've "made it" when i start getting attacked by HLs? or does the game warn you
b) at what level will I start to see the younger bait?

[Nicholost]

My question is, is there a formula that has been determined which can compute the maximum loss per attack?

Yep. Crime City Attack Analysis

[Ramshutu]

I appreciate the maths behind no banking. My main concern, however, is how much of a target I become with extra funds.

I may, experimentally start no banking and see whether the amount I am attacked increases...