Chasing Boxes, or Playing as usually - a comparison

[MSH]

Here is a very basic back of the napkin comparison of two scenarios:

I. Chasing boxes (ring event this time) using second option (Ancient Spell, gold, “fair chance” to succeed)

II. Using the gold spent on the event elsewhere.
I would use my own experience/numbers, but the process is really simple, so anyone could utilize her/his own data instead.

Brief background (some numbers are rounded up for simplification purposes) : I am level 88 and need to pay 2200 gold for each attempt to open the box; tried some 120 times throughout the event winning 8 rings, or 3 indestructible items – Marauding Drake A/D 25/15, Nether Shade A/D 36/53 and Siege Cannon A/D 68/32. I also received a huge amount of “Sorrys”, a few allies I did not need, plenty of junk, such as Corpse Constructs, a bit of gold and some useful stuff, such as h points and bronze dragons. Estimated value of the useful stuff is around 44k gold (mainly because I am being generous). Gold used to open the boxes in the meantime had added up to 264k. After adding back estimated value of the “useful stuff” received from the boxes, my net loss amounted to 220K gold (not to counting some loss of sleep and general aggravation).

Now Comparison:

Scenario 1 – 3 indestructible units with cumulative A/D 119/90

Scenario 2 - for simplicity sake, I don’t consider here lost benefits/opportunity costs of buildings upgrade/construction, just an A/D values of equally indestructible units – generic weapons and armor that could be bought in the store for gold. NB: Most players I observe, including myself, tend to have more than enough fighting units (beasts, infantry, etc.), but not enough weapons/armor as per their respective full army size stipulated by the number of allies they bring to the field. In my own case, with a full stable of 440 allies allowed at my level, I could bring 1320 fighting units, which I have many times over, as well, as 1320 of each weapons and armor, yet I have got only 943 of each…
220 K gold would allow me to purchase 10 Maces of Destruction (weapon) at 11k gold and A/D 9/17 each, together with 10 Knight’s Platemails (armor) at 11k gold and A/D 7/19 each, adding up to cumulative A/D for weapons being 90/170 and cumulative A/D for armor being 70/190. Taken together, combined item of armor and weapons that could have been acquired for 220K gold would have added 160/360 to my army’s A/D, MUCH BETTER, THAN A/D 119/90 I HAVE GOT FROM THE 3 INDESTRUCTIBLE UNITS I “WON” IN THE EVENT. Moreover, adding Berserker Minotaur (ring # 9 win) at A/D 47/63 wont change the outcome. To be fair, winning Devil Warlord (ring # 10 win) would indeed overturn the outcome above, especially considering its ability to earn 40% more h points in fights, but the probability of this win appears to be rather low indeed.

Conclusions, opinions and recommendations:

“Technical” conclusion: it makes more in game economic sense to play the game as usual, rather, than chasing the boxes, unless offered pay off is more attractive for the gamer

Personal opinion: It is just a game. If someone wants to be “adventures” and pay for boxes, indestructible, etc. with a play gold, or even with gems – it is a matter of individual choice – no biggie. I wont, but it is just my personal choice. I would definitely continue occasional “Rusty knife” – free opening option in a future – who knows

Recommendation: there is absolutely nothing wrong for the developers to try to maximize revenue in any way, including “boxing” events. It might be prudent for them, however to offer more attractive pay offs/better probabilities of success, so they would be perceived to be more “fair”. That would keep the base satisfied and more interested to participate (including using the gem options, however occasionally) thus providing win-win for everyone

[lucita]

Thanks for laying out the framework for the analysis!

I think my own contribution here is to add the increase of chances for opening by paying, so to complete the analysis. I don't play CC & MA so I only have two event experiences at KA. In the first event I used free for roughly 1/3 of my boxes with open rate of 25% and cash for 2/3 of the other boxes with open rate of roughly 41%. In the 2nd event I use only cash to open boxes with an open rate of roughly 42.5%

Another addition could be how much you 'priced' the benefit of the bonus on whatever that comes with the final unit. It's easier to do that on the 1st event as you can pull the cost of water temple grade to match the 20% reduction in casulty, but for the 2nd guy it's more difficult to 'price' the addition of 40% honor points from fights.

My lvl is higher than you and the conclusion on my case is similar to you, that it's probably better off opening the boxes with the free option. I think the current set up favours low level players because as you go higher,
i) The cost of opening goes higher
ii) Cash rewards remain the same at 4k & 20k and I doubt if the chances of getting them would go higher
iii) Most likely your army is more established with better units such that the added benefit of units from opening boxes (mage, yeti, etc.) goes lower and even to zero



I hope one day there would be a spreadsheet set up for people to plug in the numbers for their own analysis. A pre-requesite would be a better handle on the i) Box opening rate of free vs cash, and ii) Success rate of getting a gem/ring/whatever-it-may-be for the 1st to 10th item.

[Great_wall2]

I like your rationale behind justifying which may be the better option.

My only observation is that in the first KA event I used the free option for the first few days (I was saving up for my manor) and got to 7 gems fairly quickly. After that point I used the medium opening option as I had finished my manors and ended up with 9 gems in total (hit the 9th in the last couple hours of event). In the second event I strictly went the medium opening route for the entire event and found it very difficult to get rings. I hit 9 again in the last couple of hours but it took longer to hit 7 than the first event.

[MSH]

Thanks for laying out the framework for the analysis!

I think my own contribution here is to add the increase of chances for opening by paying, so to complete the analysis. I don't play CC & MA so I only have two event experiences at KA. In the first event I used free for roughly 1/3 of my boxes with open rate of 25% and cash for 2/3 of the other boxes with open rate of roughly 41%. In the 2nd event I use only cash to open boxes with an open rate of roughly 42.5%

Another addition could be how much you 'priced' the benefit of the bonus on whatever that comes with the final unit. It's easier to do that on the 1st event as you can pull the cost of water temple grade to match the 20% reduction in casulty, but for the 2nd guy it's more difficult to 'price' the addition of 40% honor points from fights.

My lvl is higher than you and the conclusion on my case is similar to you, that it's probably better off opening the boxes with the free option. I think the current set up favours low level players because as you go higher,
i) The cost of opening goes higher
ii) Cash rewards remain the same at 4k & 20k and I doubt if the chances of getting them would go higher
iii) Most likely your army is more established with better units such that the added benefit of units from opening boxes (mage, yeti, etc.) goes lower and even to zero



I hope one day there would be a spreadsheet set up for people to plug in the numbers for their own analysis. A pre-requesite would be a better handle on the i) Box opening rate of free vs cash, and ii) Success rate of getting a gem/ring/whatever-it-may-be for the 1st to 10th item.

Have posted reply already, but my ticket (whatever it is) had expired somehow, so here we go again…

Lucita, I am intrigued by your opening rates numbers. Mine were MUCH lower, than those – some 1 in 6 (around 17%) openings for the gold option and virtually 0 for the Free one, although I gave up under a few unsuccessful tries, so the sample size is not there.
Do think that the Great_Wall2 caveat applies here, though – for the first couple days/first few rings, rubies, etc. success rates are much higher, than for the rest of the event, so if the algorithms continue to be unchanged for the future events, generic optimal ” boxes recommendations” are as follows, IMHO:

- First day, or two – Free options for everyone
- Reminder – gold options for the lower to mid levels; free for advanced, as their relative pay off/gold spent ratios are relatively less attreactive
- Possible exceptions – you are at ring/ruby number 9 and the ultimate prize for you is a “game changer” – then a gem option might be preferred, I guess; another exception – you just don’t care and don’t might spending gems – the choice is yours

About “game changers” I agree with your Hydra valuation, of course; Demon Warlord valuation (H points discount) technique is not difficult, as well, as follows:

- Lower to upper mid players it is just sheer qualitative advantage – H points based units, such as cannons are game changers, as none of the very advanced units, such, as flaming trebuchet, or say wyvern are available. In my army, for example, cannons are the strategic backbone and help me to compete successfully even with some rather heavy gems players. In fact, I fight primarily to gain H points…

- For you mighty high levels, cannon’s A/D performance is somewhere between Flaming Catapult 34/16, gold 3.6K and Flaming Trebuchet 40/19, gold 5.4K. With cannon’s casualty rates being better, though, I would valuate them at around 5K to 7.5K each. Now all you need is just to factor in the worth of units you loose to fight for getting 500 H points required to get a cannon and a 40% discount benefit…Of course, you might opt. to quit PvPs altogether – then the h points might lose most of their allure for you

I do agree that the current set up of boxing events favors the newbies/lower level players, as their relative pay offs are better, but that’s logical, as there are much more of them, than the advanced ones, at least now, when the game is at the growth stage. Also, at least some of them tend to be more impulsive/easier swayed to pay gems for prizes…
Wonder what Funzio would do, if anything, when KA reaches Maturity Stage – perhaps, just gives up and offer something entirely new, who knows…In general, Product Life Cycles dynamics for these sort of games is fascinating and could hold the key for their valuation/evolution, but that’s a theme for entirely different thread, I guess…

[lucita]

Thanks for another well-written reply and thoughtful analysis!
Yeah, I do think you need larger data set to determine the open rate of free vs cash option. Hopefully one day we would have someone setting up a spreadsheet to put in the data and average out to get some numbers with more accuracy.

I like your analysis, particularly how your may try to value HP/canon. I think we kinda have similar playing style, free, don't mind getting exp, do PvP for HP and having a large number of canons. The only bit that I kinda disagree/don't quite like is to decide using free or cash only after your 1st or 2nd day. I believe if you have a decent handle on i) open rate of free vs cash, ii) how many trails you can afford to do in a week, iii) what you want to achieve, and iv) [toughest] how many trails it may take to achieve what you want, then you should start doing entirely free or cash at the beginning of the event. Of course, I've only played only 2 events and can only draw this view after the 2nd one. I've decided that it'll be always free options for me unless the 10th item bonus is extremely great.

Regarding "for the first couple days/first few rings, rubies, etc. success rates are much higher", it's stated officially that the gem/ring rate will go lower as you get more. Another data set that I can share with is how many box I need to open before getting the next gem/ring.

I'm lazy to set up a spreadsheet, so hope you can understand what I mean in the following. For instance, it seems like for the first 3 open boxes you'll always get a gem/ring.

1st event
Gem / # of opened box
1 / 1
2 / 1
3 / 1
4 / 1
5 / 1
6 / 3
7 / 3
8 / 3
9 / 11
10 / 27

2nd event
Ring / # of opened box
1 / 1
2 / 1
3 / 1
4 / 3
5 / 1
6 / 3
7 / 3
8 / 3
9 / 5
10 / Fail - 28 trial

Hopefully this can attract more people to share their data!

[Freekizh]

I don't like this analysis at all. I don't think an indestructible should be valued the same as armor or weapon. If I go into battle with an equivalent gold unit that costs 7000+ gold, then for each attack I put the equivalent at risk. Having armor or weapons does not eliminate the necessity that i bring a unit into battle. If i do a lot of attacks, its gonna pay for itself real quick the more active you are in PvP. If I'm low allied it becomes even more important since I already have enuff armor and weapons and I cannot buy a similar gold unit wo huge upgrades.

Also if I choose the gold option the chance is higher so I waste less real money time which is important to me, and it's worth a lot more than 2k in game gold IMO. For this reason if I really wanted the unit, it would make sense to use gem.

[MSH]

I don't like this analysis at all. I don't think an indestructible should be valued the same as armor or weapon. If I go into battle with an equivalent gold unit that costs 7000+ gold, then for each attack I put the equivalent at risk. Having armor or weapons does not eliminate the necessity that i bring a unit into battle. If i do a lot of attacks, its gonna pay for itself real quick the more active you are in PvP. If I'm low allied it becomes even more important since I already have enuff armor and weapons and I cannot buy a similar gold unit wo huge upgrades.

Also if I choose the gold option the chance is higher so I waste less real money time which is important to me, and it's worth a lot more than 2k in game gold IMO. For this reason if I really wanted the unit, it would make sense to use gem.

Hmm..I actually agree with you that if you REALLY want a unit – you might want to use gems – that was actually mentioned in the preamble above. In general, most frameworks are as good as the common denominators used. For us, common denominator was gold and how much gold could have been reasonable to allocate for each box opening, if at all. Each player could use own preference/judgment to proceed. If you prefer to use gem, as the common denominator – that’s perfectly up to you, but the main question remains the same – how much denominated units (gems in your case) would you want to spend to get a chance for obtaining a unit in play. Obviously, you might like to optimize your expenditure based on the perceived value of the item (s)in question…

As to armor/weapon I would stand by the original assertion that for a player who does not have complete armory to match his/her allowed army units, which seems to hold true for most of us, at least based on my rather extensive observations, high quality armor/weaponry is as good, as at least lower end indestructible – after all, armor/weapon are indestructible, as well and they do bring their own A/D, sometimes considerable to the game. My Siren’s Call at 25/15 is at least as strong and as helpful at PvP, as an indestructible Marauding Drake, I won at the rings event. Moreover, I think that at PvE class specific weapons/armors are more preferable, than indestructible. For example, a store gold bought armor, say Thaumaturge Robe for my class, Mage would be more useful to me at 12/23 A/D, than more nominally strong indestructible item, which simply could not be used for PvE. NB: many players actually appear to prefer PvE, not PvP…

Quick Question here: does anybody know by any chance, whether the power of the Hero equipment accumulates – e.g. if I have 10 Robes would my A/D at PvE grow tenfold, as in PvP?

You mentioned “low allied” and I agree with you that the lower your allies count the lower the number of items you are allowed to fight with, so the relative power of each item is getting more important the less allies you have. Another Quick Question: Why would anyone want to be low allied, especially at the mid level and up when you could fill all the battle items your level allows for? The more allies you have –the stronger your real fighting power is, so why limit? Is there any tactical advantage in limiting your allies count?

Finally, you mentioned an army with 7000k+ gold units apiece. I suppose it was a purely hypothetical statement, as the only items in the entire game, at least so far would be Steam Tank (level 10 Gnomish lab A/D 35/37 at gold 7.5k apiece) and Hydra (level 8 Breeding Den A/D 40/36 at gold 7.5k apiece). To field army of any of those, your economy should be so sublime an expense of mere 2k+ per box would not be even noticed for you

[MSH]

Thanks for another well-written reply and thoughtful analysis!
Yeah, I do think you need larger data set to determine the open rate of free vs cash option. Hopefully one day we would have someone setting up a spreadsheet to put in the data and average out to get some numbers with more accuracy.

I like your analysis, particularly how your may try to value HP/canon. I think we kinda have similar playing style, free, don't mind getting exp, do PvP for HP and having a large number of canons. The only bit that I kinda disagree/don't quite like is to decide using free or cash only after your 1st or 2nd day. I believe if you have a decent handle on i) open rate of free vs cash, ii) how many trails you can afford to do in a week, iii) what you want to achieve, and iv) [toughest] how many trails it may take to achieve what you want, then you should start doing entirely free or cash at the beginning of the event. Of course, I've only played only 2 events and can only draw this view after the 2nd one. I've decided that it'll be always free options for me unless the 10th item bonus is extremely great.

Regarding "for the first couple days/first few rings, rubies, etc. success rates are much higher", it's stated officially that the gem/ring rate will go lower as you get more. Another data set that I can share with is how many box I need to open before getting the next gem/ring.

I'm lazy to set up a spreadsheet, so hope you can understand what I mean in the following. For instance, it seems like for the first 3 open boxes you'll always get a gem/ring.

1st event
Gem / # of opened box
1 / 1
2 / 1
3 / 1
4 / 1
5 / 1
6 / 3
7 / 3
8 / 3
9 / 11
10 / 27

2nd event
Ring / # of opened box
1 / 1
2 / 1
3 / 1
4 / 3
5 / 1
6 / 3
7 / 3
8 / 3
9 / 5
10 / Fail - 28 trial

Hopefully this can attract more people to share their data!

Thank you. We do seem to have a very similar styles indeed, albeit with you positioned higher up the food chain
I like your data sets, even w/o spreadsheet - they are similar to mine and conform to the base principle - free at the start, some gold afterward and, perhaps some gems for the final prize, if it is really cool one (a game changer).

The easiness at the beginning is just a bait, of course, but I for one glad to take it - free stuff is always welcome
Seriously, though it would have been quite useful to have at least approximate data for both - box opening rates for each option throughout each event, as well as incidences of finding rings, rubies, etc. in each opened box. Dont think it could be obtained, as they seem to want us guessing...and could change their algorithms at any time...

[lucita]

1st Question: Does Hero equipment accumulates in PvP?
A: No. (Unless Funzio has done something funny about it)
2nd Question: Why do people do low ally?
A: I'm not in that position but there're a few logical explanations I can come up with:
- They just dunno the game. One extreme case is someone close to lvl 100 with 10-15 ally and 10k loss
- They screw up a bit and don't have the money to buy armor and weapon. Some of these guys realize the problem and get it fixed
- They wanna mingle among those with low ally at low level for PvP attacks. It make sense as long as the gain in their attacks is more than loss from the whales, cos low lvl/low ally players may have a lot of unvaulted cash but as you move higher you're not likely to see that. A few guys on my prey list at <10k att/def do that and can have up to 7/3 win/loss ratio

Yeah, there will never be complete data for many black box operation in the game, casulty calculation, battle list formation, lock box event opening rate, drop rate, etc. It's just part of the game and also what makes if fun. Funzio can definitely change things whenever they want but I just feel like the more hard data we have the better we would be informed to get more fun from the game.

For example, assume that i) I know the exact opening rate of the free and cash option (assuming 25% & 40%), ii) I can only open 12 box a day and don't wanna loss my sleep, iii) I have a good handle of gem rate somewhere like 100%/100%/100%/50%/50%/25%/25%/25%/15%/3%, then I can do some calculations to decide whether I should use free or cash option.

As you said, similar framework can be applied to decide whether it's economical to use gem to open box or reset time, but for the sake of simplicity and the fact that I play free I leave this part of the discussion out.

Btw, do you have the attempt count for your 6th-10th gem? That would be the useful thing to share

[asdfg12345]

Having the chance to get unique indestructible units covers any costs associated with them. As a free player, its rare to have units that doesnt die every 3 fights.